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Why Sino-Russian Widebody Project Is Not Another Airbus
译者:unknown     发布时间:2017-11-16     超过 0 位网友阅读



In May the Chinese and Russian governments announced a joint venture (JV) to build a new clean-sheet twin-aisle jetliner. The twinjet will be intended to carry 280 passengers up to 7500 nm competing with Airbus’s A350-900 and Boeing’s 787-9. Like those aircraft the new C929 as it has been called is expected to include composites for about 50% of its airfrx.

五月份,中俄两国政府宣布成立一家合资企业来研发全新的双通道宽体客机.  这款双发客机预计的最大载客量为280人,最大航程7500英里(1.2W公里) ,将会与空客的A350-900和波音的787-9竞争 . 新的C929会与前两者一样使用复合材料, 据说会达到50%左右.


It is tempting to think of this new concept as a game-changer. After all Russia has deep aerospace engineering experience and China is one of the two biggest commercial jetliner markets (with the U.S.). Barriers to entry in the twin-aisle market are higher than for almost any other industry. Vladimir Putin’s Russia is eager to restore the country’s former aerospace glory and China’s government wants to create a national aircraft industry.


Also only two countries have developed jetliners in this class on their own the U.S. and the former Soviet unx. European manufacturers were only able to join the club by pooling the continent’s resources under Airbus. A Sino-Russian Airbus sounds like a disruptive event.

而且只有两个国家曾经du立开发过这个级别的飞机一个是美国一个是前苏联. ?#20998;?#21046;造商只能通过将?#20998;?#22823;陆上的资源集中到空客公司才能跻身这个领域. 一个中俄联合版?#30446;?#23458;听上去是d覆性事.件.

However this is not another Airbus in the making. The story of Russia’s sole twin-aisle family and the history of Russia’s previous aviation joint ventures serve as a cautionary tale for this project.

然而这不是筹建中的另一个空客. 俄罗斯唯一宽体客机机型研发历程以及俄罗斯之前的航空合资企业的历史,为这个项目提供?#21496;?#31034;。

Russia’s Ilyushin Il-86 and Il-96 twin-aisle quadjet series were not a terribly successful family. Just 104 Il-86s and about 30 Il-96s have been delivered since 1979. The Il-96 intended to rejuvenate the family and let Russian industry compete with Western jetmakers in the post-Soviet era has been a notable failure. Il-96 production still sputters along at a very low level today and hopes of relaunching it with Pratt & Whitney engines and Rockwell Collins avionics died in the early 2000s. The Il-96 competed with and lost against Airbus’s A340 family which was not exactly the greatest triumph of jetliner technology either.

俄罗斯的伊尔- 86和伊尔 - 96四发宽体客机系列并不是非常成功的型号。自1979年以来,只有104架伊尔- 86s和大约30架伊尔- 96s交付使用。前苏联时代,伊尔- 96计划推出型号,让俄罗斯工业与西方飞机制造商竞争,结果完败。目前,伊尔- 96仍在很低的水平上维持运转,利用普惠公司的引擎和罗克韦尔柯林斯公司的航空电子设备的?#30431;?#37325;新上天的希望在21世纪初也破灭了。伊尔- 96与空客A340的型号竞争并失败,这也显示其喷气客机技术并不是很成功。

[email][email protected][/email] on Jul 17 2017
While I agree with the general premise I wouldn't underestimate the Chinese determination to be a major player in the business. This partnership may be one of a few steps needed to get there once they do they will be a formidable competitor. The next step will probably be a joint venture with an underfunded western engine manufacturer perhaps.


PAULY on Jul 19 2017
Fantastic point. China will forge ahead and if it costs them an arm and a leg to get in the game so be it.


123dcp on Jul 19 2017
Agreed. China is likely willing to fund several not very successful efforts on the way to owning a real competitor to the duopoly. Eventually they may be willing to fund efforts to develop an engine manufacturer as well. I suspect getting into the engine-making game might involve even more restrictions on technology transfers though. That could make it very hard to create a real competitor with the potential for sales outside of China.

同意。为了成为双头垄断的一个真正的竞争对手, 中国可能愿意为?#22797;?#19981;太成功的努力提供资金。最终,他们可能愿意为开发引擎制造商提供资金。?#19968;?#30097;进入引擎制造游戏可能会?#32422;?#26415;转让有更多的限制。这种限制将使中国很难成为中国市场之外有潜力的竞争者。

[email][email protected][/email] on Jul 19 2017
A cautionary tale is the automotive industry. They have been working with German and American manufacturers for years but have yet to produce an indigenous automobile that sells well beyond its borders.


[email protected] on Jul 19 2017
The automotive industry is indeed a cautionary tale. But not in the way you're depicting. China is now the largest auto market in the world by a large margin. Domestic manufacturers have both expanded greatly and dramatically improved their quality. JD Power expects them to reach parity in 2018. They're not selling in the US yet but they've been exporting more than a million cars per year since 2012.

汽车业确实是值得警示。但不像你描述的那样。中国现在是世界上最大的汽车市场。国内制造商的规模?#26412;?#25193;大,产?#20998;?#37327;也大大提高。市场调查机构JD Power预计,它们将在2018年实?#21046;到?#20986;口?#21046;健?#34429;然现在他们目前还没有在美国销售,但自2012年以来,他们每年出口的汽车超过100万辆。

[email][email protected][/email] on Jul 19 2017
Buick has been importing SUVs from China to the US for about a year now. And Volvos from China are now also selling in US dealerships.


Spectre49 on Jul 19 2017
What the China is a competitor enthusiasts miss is that in computers autos boom boxes you can go bust and rebuild quickly.


But the successful ones have been PRIVATE often arms of Western Companies (Apple products made to order) .


None of the good stuff comes from a Government owned factory.


Add in that aircraft are 20+ year programs not one year not 3 months 20+ years.

耗在这架飞机是一个需要20+年的项目,不是1年,不是3个月   20+年。

So far China has missed the boat with two programs (and neither aircraft is certified to a recognized world standard but it US Japan or Europe)


The show stopper comes when Russian says we want our 15 billion up front and we aren't contributing a dime.


When you can't even build a competitive aircraft let alone certified then you have no chance to have a generation shift and make a leap past Airbus and Boeing and that is what it would take.


Sure you can force the local airlines to take what is built but they simply park them and hide them on low use routes that their competitor have to sue the same poorly maintained aircraft on and not loose money.


Aircraft are a whole different ball game.


SlowMan on Jul 19 2017
"And Volvos from China are now also selling in US dealerships."


And this is why you should avoid Volvos altogether. Volvo is not safer than its rivals anymore so there is no reason to buy it.


Daniel Su on Jul 19 2017
Interesting is really a fantastic point. In addition maybe SAFAN is the first choice partner of the Sino-Foreign commercial engine JV.


davidjpritchard... on Jul 17 2017
The Russian commercial aviation industry has come a long way since the 1990's with the TU204 and IL 96 programs. The Sukhoi Superjet 100 has EASA certification and the MC 21 program (which you forgot to mention) will get EASA certification.


On the Chinese side they have learned how to build commercial aircraft to western standards with ARJ 21 and C919 (C919 is currently going thru the process for EASA certification)

在中国方面,他们已经学会通过ARJ 21和C919建造可达到西方标准的商用飞机(C919目前正在进行EASA?#29616;?

At 2.5 aircraft a month production rate for the 929 wide-body program (600 aircraft for 20 year program( (which Airbus and Boeing will not be selling) China alone can take the entire production run.

929宽体客机项目(20年生产600架客机)平均每月生产2.5架飞机  仅中国就可以完成整个生产过程

It might be time to give credit to UAC engineering prowess with the first out of autoclave composite wing for the MC21 (process to be used for 929) It still needs to be announced that the fuselage will be composite (makes sense for long range flights) and produced in China. This composite technology will put the 929 at least with par with 787 and A350 and possibility ahead since these aircraft programs were launched over 10 years ago.


The bottom line is the Russians have the engineering and Chinese have endless money to make the 929 program successful (part of the national policy "Made in China 2025)


Your story could be one from the early 1970's with changing the names from UAC/Comac to Airbus.

你的故事来?#26434;?970年代 ,把名字从UAC / Comac换成了空客。

The lesson for western aviation industry for the new wide body competition is:
"Those that fail to learn from history are doomed to repeat it."


musha on Jul 19 2017
That said IL96 is pretty good from frx pov. it has of course totally obsoleted avionics but this is plus as well as modern avionics has less weight. Major trouble of IL96 is engines and neither Russia nor Chine produces engines of required scale.
so this is story of PD35 development (russian project for engine for place of this size).


rkapo77 on Jul 19 2017
Davidjpritchard: You say it all and say it well. The articke is a joke. History.


[email protected] on Jul 19 2017
With a lot of help the Russians have been able to produce an aircraft in the Superjet that cannot compete with what Embraer in Brazil has been doing for decades. It does rather put the whole thing in context.


dinant van den Belt on Jul 19 2017
Where I'm puzzled is the fact that it will be a me too product. When Airbus joined the market it changed the industry by making the flight engineer redundant.
Next to the fact that Russia and China both have there own interest in this market which can be conflicting.


[email][email protected][/email] on Jul 19 2017
Both the A300 and A310 had a flight engineer. Airbus's game changer was fly-by-wire on the A320


yankeeclipper747 on Jul 19 2017
Early A300's did but not for long and I never saw an F/E on a A310.


skitnik on Jul 19 2017
@WJLAviator you are wrong. Only the first Airbus A300B1/B2 (don't mix with A300B4 aka A300-600) had flight Engineer. The first ever "Glass Cockpit" aircraft with out Flight Engineer was A310. There the ECAM system was for the first time embodied that made the F/E redundant. But since A310 was the first A/C to be certified to have systems and some engines instruments on electronic displays it was required to have conventional instruments as well. I am A310-200/300 and A300-600 Certifying Engineer since 1991.

你错了。只有第一架空客A300B1 / B2(不要与A300B4 即 A300-600混了)有飞行工程师。第一架没有配备飞行工程师的“玻璃化座舱”飞机是A310。首次安装了飞机电子中央监视器,所以就没必要配备飞行工程师了。但是由于A310是首架在电子显示屏上显示?#20302;?#21644;引擎指导书的?#29616;?#39134;机,所以也需要传统的?#28508;懟?#33258;1991年以来,我一直担任 A310-200/300 和 A300-600的?#29616;?#24037;程师。

[email][email protected][/email] on Jul 19 2017
skitnik I concede your point I must have only flown on the flight deck of an A300B1/B2 and not the later B4. I did some work many years ago for a cargo airline looking at a computerised loading system and looking back they must have been operating a B1/B2. Mea Culpa.

我同意你的观点,我仅在A300B1 / B2的驾驶舱飞行过,没在B4过。?#25913;?#21069;在货运航线工作中上看到过一套电脑化的装载?#20302;常?#29616;在想想它们一定是也在B1 / B2上运行。认错。

[email protected] on Jul 19 2017
Airbus was the originator of the wide body twin. The A320 came later.


Eddie Abel on Jul 19 2017
The real innovation was putting 2 advanced engines on a wide body airfrx.


[email][email protected][/email] on Jul 19 2017
I do recall that when the Airbus A300 first arrived on the scene the knowledgeable commentators all stated with absolute certainty that Airbus would NOT be a threat to Boeing because of the years of experience Boeing had in building jet airliners.


Both Russia and China are huge markets and are developing a highly skilled workforce backed up by an unprecedented technical education system that the USA and particularly the UK seem to have abandoned.


David Pritchard got it right
Your story could be one from the early 1970's with changing the names from UAC/Comac to Airbus.
The lesson for western aviation industry for the new wide body competition is:

"Those that fail to learn from history are doomed to repeat it."你的故事来?#26434;?970年代 ,把名字从UAC / Comac换成了空客。

[email protected] on Jul 19 2017
Very true. Competitors that have to rely on markets for financing projects are at a disadvantage to those that have the resources of governments backing them up. If Airbus had been a purely commercial company at its inception there's no way they could have developed a broad portfolio of aircraft to challenge Boeing in every market in anywhere near the time frx that they did with government backing. China has an even greater ability to do that today than the Europeans did beginning back in the 1970s.


Rick Shaw on Jul 19 2017
Russia is a huge market?
They have a shrinking population of 145 million (9th in the world) and rank 72nd in per capita GDP just behind Greece. The only thing they sell that the rest of the world wants to buy is natural resources weapons vodka and caviar.


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